Jul 272012
 

The Red Sea and Africa’s north-east move deeper into an era of great change, with global ramifications as energy acquisition patterns also transform, impacting the relative geopolitical centrality of the region. 

Ethiopians gathered quietly, on July 23, 2012, in larger numbers than in recent years, and in more places around the world, as well as in Ethiopia, and remembered the birthday of the late Emperor, Haile Selassie I, born 120 years earlier. 
The manner of their gatherings, and the growing and open remembrance of the “good times” of Ethiopian growth and prosperity in the Imperial period, were strategically significant. They reflected the reality that change has now begun in Ethiopia, and that there is less to fear from what had been the growing xenophobia of the Tigrean-born Prime Minister, Meles Zenawi, against potential rivals and against the Amhara people from whom the late Emperor had risen. 

Has the Age of Meles Ended? 

By July 23, 2012 — the Emperor’s birthday anniversary — it was clear to those exchanging rumours in the Mercato in Addis Ababa that Meles Zenawi, 57, was either seriously ill, or perhaps even already dead. He had failed toparticipate in the African Union (AU) summit in Addis, and to meet a delegation from the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Ethiopia’s most important investor/trading partner. 

Meles’ situation — regardless of how serious his health problems might be at present — mirrors the problems of leadership elsewhere in the region: in neighbouring Somaliland; in Yemen; and particularly in Eritrea, where Pres. Isayas Afewerke is almost certainly in failing health, if not already dead or incapacitated. The pattern of governmental “transitions” and power vacuums and difficulties in these states, as well as in Egypt, Sudan, and Somalia, has profound implications for the stability and security of the Red Sea/Suez sea lanes, and for the region generally. As we discuss in this report, the “unravelling” of the situations in Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Egypt, in particular, was picking up pace by mid-2012.

By July 18, 2012, even Agence France Presse (AFP) had picked up reports from “diplomatic sources” that Meles was in a “critical condition” in a Brussels hospital, although one source confirmed that he was, at least, still alive. Earlier in the week, Government spokesmen were saying that reports that Meles was being treated at a Brussels hospital were “false and wrong”. By July 20, 2012, the Government Communications Office said that Meles was in good health and would be back at his post in a few days, but confirmed that he “recently had a health problem that needed professional attention”.  

The speculation — and it was only that — was that he was suffering from a brain tumor; no official would confirmthe nature of his illness. By July 18, 2012, as well, Deputy Prime Minister, Hailemariam Desalegn confirmed at least that Meles was ill, explaining Meles’ absence from his scheduled chairmanship at a meeting in Addis of the New Partnership for African Development (DEPAD) on July 14, 2012, and his scheduled AU leaders’ summit on July 15, 2912. 

The notably anti-Meles Ethiopian Review in early July 2012 commented: “Ethiopia’s khat-addicted dictator Meles Zenawi has been diagnosed with blood cancer and is receiving treatment at a Belgium hospital.” 

His wife, Azeb Mesfin a member of Parliament and a key figure in the Tigré People’s Liberation Front: TPLF), visited Brussels for one day to see her husband in hospital. The former Foreign Minister (1991-2010) Seyoum Mesfin (currently Ethiopian Ambassador to the PRC, but still a key figure in the TPLF, which totally dominates the Government coalition, the Ethiopian Peoples Revolutionary Democratic Front: EPRDF) also visited him, before returning to Addis Ababa. Seyoum is a strong contender to replace Meles.

There seems little doubt that Azeb Mesfin has been positioning herself to succeed her husband, although possibly not — initially — with the title of Prime Minister. Talk is that the Deputy Prime Minister, Hailemariam Desalegn, would take over, at least for an interim period. But there is little doubt that Azeb Mesfin (although with some Amhara family heritage of her own) shares her husband’s anti- Amhara policies, or at least uses this as a badge of legitimacy in the TPLF, which is also her only power base. Clearly, her only lever in the power stakes would be to attempt to continue the Tigrean (read TPLF) domination of the EPRDF and of Ethiopian life. 

Here is where evidence is emerging of broad opposition to that, both within the EPRDF’s non-Tigrean membership, and from within the broader Ethiopian community, which has, until this point, been heavily constrained from voicing any opposition to Meles’ policies. 

Meanwhile, Ethiopia’s Muslim community has been engaging in a growing fratricidal conflict, mainly between members of the moderate Ethiopian Islamic community and those converted by the large injections of Saudi funding to neo-salafist beliefs. These clashes grew to the point where riot police intervened in recent (July 2012) clashes in Addis Ababa just before and just after the AU summit in Addis. Foreign media reporting has indicated that these protests have been about the marginalization of the growing Muslim minority from governance. Deeper analysis how’s it is between the imported and domestic strands of Islam, and between neo-salafist and moderate strands, and the Meles Government has been supportive of the imported, moderate brand. Saudi Arabia has, for the past few decades funnelled billions of dollars worth of investment in Ethiopia, and also the source of funding for a massive campaign of mosque-building, to facilitate the proselytization of Saudi neo-salafist Wahhabism. 

Ethiopian Muslims have protested against Government support for the Al Ahbash sect of Islam, which is ostensibly apolitical. Al Ahbash is also known as the Association of Islamic Charitable Projects, a Sufi movement, following the teachings of Ethiopian religious scholar Abdulla al-Harari. It is possible that the Government supported Al Ahbash to counterbalance the influence of imported Saudi Wahhabism. 

But what is important is that the dissent by Ethiopian Muslims for or against imported strands of Islam, but in any event protesting against the Government, as well as the open support being shown for the memory of the late Emperor (and therefore, by definition, backing off from the hostility toward the Amhara ethnic group, and from the suppression of the Oromo peoples), are symptomatic of the reality that Meles and the TPLF have been unable to sustain the tightness of their grip on Ethiopia in recent months. Meles’ health condition — for some months a matter of speculation — may well have been at the root of the Administration’s declining ability to sustain its control. 

There have been other, small, indicators, as well, such as the defection of the driver of Meles’ wife, Azeb Mesfin, who reportedly disappeared on about July 20, 2012, and apparently turned up in Rome. Why now? What spurred him to make the break? Was it the fact that he heard about the impending collapse of the Government, or the death or disability of Meles? And did Azeb prompt him to make the move? 

Azeb Mesfin herself received an Italian visa on July 18, 2012, and was in Rome by July 19. It was reported on July 20, 2012, that Azeb had herself left Ethiopia to escape from Sebhat Nega, a key TPLF official whom she forced out of the party’s top leadership in 2009. She also had him removed from his chairmanship of the multi-billion-dollar Endowment Fund for the Rehabilitation of Tigré (EFFORT) around the same time. Sebhat Nega began manoeuvring from about the first week in July 2012 to make a comeback as the TPLF power. It was Sebhat who engineered Meles’ rise to power and he was the second most powerful figure in the ruling party until he was humiliated and removed by Azeb. Nonetheless, even though Sebhat has significant support within the TPLF, he is not seen as a successor to Meles, but he appears to have retained his influence and the loyalty of his supporters. And Sebhat has been known to oppose Meles’ own choice of a successor, Berhane Gebrekiristos. 

This was perhaps one of the most significant pointers to the reality that Meles Zenawi was no longer in power, or likely to recover (assuming he was still alive). Indeed, it is also significant that his wife, Azeb, left Addis the day before Meles reportedly returned to the capital (on July 20, 2012). 

Meanwhile, Berhane Gebrekiristos and Teodros Adhanom, another close confidante of Meles, were reportedly — by July 10, 2012 — named as acting Prime Ministers of Ethiopia. 

Clearly, then, the Age of Meles in Ethiopia has ended, or was ending by early July 2012. More important now, is to calculate what this could mean to Ethiopia and the region. 

What has been significant, during this “interregnum”, however, has been the reality that Eritrea quietly occupied the contested border area which includes the city of Badme. Ethiopia and Eritrea had, in fact, agreed to the ceding of this area in the Algiers Accord of 2002, but Meles had — even up to May 2012 — refused to allow the transfer of the town to Eritrea. There were valid reasons for this, but what was significant was that Eritrea — which has its own leadership problems at present — had not challenged Ethiopia on the matter until June-July 2012, when it seemed clear to Asmara that Meles’ grip on power had loosened. 

The Strategic Impact 

Many factors on the regional and global stage have begun to coalesce. New and fundamental questions must now be raised about whether the geo-strategic importance of the core Middle East — the Arabian Peninsula and the seas to the north, east, and south of it — has also begun to be transformed. 

The changing of the guard in Ethiopia is just one watershed event. Meles’ apparent incapacitation came at a time when Eritrea’s Isayas was also incapacitated (and, equally possibly, close to death), and at a time of political transitions in Egypt and Yemen, and internal preoccupation in Sudan (to the point of war with South Sudan). Indeed, it comes also at a time when the Saudi Arabian leadership itself is contemplating generational change. 

At best, the end of the Meles and Isayas autocracies compounds the break of the status quo of the past few decades in the Red Sea/Suez sea lane of communication (SLOC), the broader Horn of Africa, and in Egypt itself. This has profound implications for East-West trade, which depends on the SLOC; transforming Egypt’s traditional hostility toward Ethiopia (which has utilized Eritrea as a staging horse to isolate Ethiopia, so as to minimize Ethiopian interference with the Blue Nile source waters); and opening up the prospects for Israel to once again more safely project naval power down the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean. 

At the same time, however, the centrality to the global market of the oil and gas exports from the region (and particularly the Arabian Peninsula and Persian Gulf) has been declining. The question has to be asked as to whether the Red Sea/Suez SLOC is as strategically critical as it was, say, two decades ago? Certainly, in terms of ship movements and revenues to Egypt (Suez Canal), it may have risen in direct, statistical terms. But is it as critical in overall terms of strategic balance? 

For the PRC and Japan, for example, while exports from the Persian Gulf remain critical, these can bypass the Red Sea/Suez SLOC, and, increasingly, the PRC is seeking overland oil and gas transfers from the Northern Tier (Iran and the Caspian Basin), rather than via sea lanes. To some degree, for Europe as well, pipelines are the dominant traffic lanes of the future, rather than sea lanes. On the other hand, oil and gas from the Horn of Africa itself — as well as from Yemen — is of growing importance, although oil from South Sudan is being postured to go via new pipelines through Kenya to the Indian Ocean, rather than allowing South Sudanese exports to continue to be subject to Sudanese control. [The original pipelines went from what is now South Sudan up to the Red Sea, through what is now Sudanese territory. The Kenyan route itself is not without problems, given the potential for instability and even secessionist activities taking place in Kenyan coastal regions.] 

Japan itself, now highly conscious of the vulnerability of its oil and gas sea lanes through the Indian Ocean — as US influence declines (despite the US’ “Pacific pivot”), and because of increased PRC activities to control the chokepoints: the South China Sea sea-lanes, which link the Indian Ocean (and therefore the Red Sea) to the Pacific and on to Japan. As a result, Japan is seen as likely to increase its attempts to acquire Canadian oil and gas, largely from the Alberta fields, especially since the US Barack Obama Administration rejected (for the time being) plans for a pipeline from Alberta down through to the US markets. But the Canadians are also now more aware of, and ready to act on, the reality that an export market exists for their oil outside of the US. Significantly, as the global energy pattern changes, however, the US demand even for Canadian energy is seen as likely to decline. 

Ultimately, an Alberta-Vancouver pipeline may make sound sense to Canada, to address the Asian markets, including Japan. And Japan might also find that it can find energy supplies from the US fields in Alaska, given the fact that the Alaska pipeline itself is under-utilized and facing real questions as to its viability if demand for Alaskan energy from “the lower 48” states declines further.  

Such a move would instantly free Japan from the strategic uncertainty and massive cost of importing oil and gasfrom the north-western Indian Ocean (Persian Gulf), and give it short, secure sea-lines of communication with North America. This becomes increasingly important as Japan decides whether it can, politically, return to nuclear power generation or not. 

Inherent in all this is the reality that US reliance on Middle Eastern energy is declining, and declining rapidly. 

In other words, fear and uncertainty over the security of Middle Eastern sea lanes and choke points should be expected to be a driver in future energy procurement decisions and trade, pushing energy companies to invest in the recovery of oil and gas from less politically hostile regions. This could well spur the US — particularly after this term of the Barack Obama Administration — to redouble its efforts at recovering energy from its newly-confirmed oil and gas reserves. Egypt itself could also well turn its back on the Red Sea to some extent (although it will always be important to Cairo because of Suez Canal revenues), if Ethiopia can reassure it on the question of Blue Nile water flow, and if the offshore Mediterranean gas fields can provide a major energy income from European clients. 

Even within Europe, the new availability of energy resources from the massive shale deposits, as well as the new Eastern Mediterranean gas fields and the growing network of supplies emerging from Russia and the Caspian Sea Basin, make the Middle East less critical as an energy resource. Clearly, the Red Sea/Suez retains its importance as a trade sea route, but even that, to an extent, is to be supplemented, if not challenged, over the coming decades by internal overland connections within the Eurasian landmass: the new Silk Route. 

Has Arabia’s brief period in the geopolitical sun come, then, to its apogee? 

All of this, then, could cause the PRC and India to become Ethiopia’s (and South Sudan’s) most interested clients for energy, just as they have become more important clients for energy from Iran, the Persian Gulf states, Sudan, and West Africa. 

It is unsurprising that the present Turkish Government has begun to exert its renewed interest in the region, particularly by supporting Sudanese Pres. Umar Hasan Ahmad al-Bashir and attempting to court the Muslim Brothers in Egypt. Turkey has reasserted its claim to have an historical interest in the control of the Red Sea, based primarily on its earlier Ottoman dominance of what is now Saudi Arabia. While this Turkish claim or posturing may appear to be unsustainable to regional states, or outside observers, today, it is nonetheless a factor in Turkish neo-Ottomanism, and is also linked to Turkey’s grand strategic sense of rivalry with Iran (which also seeks to assert an influence on the Red Sea and Horn of Africa). 

Where does all of this leave Ethiopia, Eritrea, and the Horn of Africa? 

Significantly, one possibility could be — with the personality-driven autocracies of Meles and Isayas drifting astern — that Ethiopia and Eritrea resume their historical relationship, but in such a way that the various elements of the “old empire” are given their due attention. This could see a gradually coalescing confederation which would include Eritrea (historically, the Bar Negus: Kingdom of the North), and Ethiopia, with greater prominence given to the aspirations of its great regions, such as Oromo- land, and the Somali regions, Tigré, the Amhara Plateau, and so on. 

Nostalgia for the golden days of Emperor Haile Selassie I means that there are elements of the historical interlinking cultures of the Ge’ez language based peoples which still have a commonality. 

By. Gregory R. Copley, Editor, GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs

 Posted by at 2:10 am

  24 Responses to “The Emperor’s Ghost: How the Transformations in the Horn of Africa and Red Sea Reflect, and Help Change, the Global Energy and Geopolitical Scene”

  1. This guy is a moron. I do not know where his professionalism comes into play. He is just mixing apples and oranges and trying to make sense out of it. Obviously this guy has never been to the horn of Africa in decades. Possibly his last visit to Ethiopia/Eritrea was when Emperor Haileslassie was alive. Or he may be a Rasta who still believes emperor Haileslassie is still alive and nothing changed.

  2. I like this articles and shows the ugly side of the Ethiopians back history.

  3. The succession of Meles by Azeb is just farfetched. It may be your wish but can’t happen at all. Ethiopins love Meles but hate his wife. She never read a book or abugida. How can she lead a country

  4. Hallo mr Gregori .R copely I think you know more about Ethiopians ,but you are absent minding of eritreans inspite of good leadership of eritrea to the peaple of eritreans and the hieted and mercenery coche of american forein polices and europeans. Mr,MELES ZENAWI Despite of multy millioner meles taking from cia. But essayas Afwerki have nathing only onbhalf of healthy peaple of eritreans,So please dont make old stories come & see As u know our Gold our minds also gold.so as finally there is proverb (Dont Dgage a book with its caver).

  5. Hallo mr Gregori .R copely I think you know more about Ethiopians ,but you are absent minding of eritreans inspite of good leadership of eritrea to the peaple of eritreans and the hieted and mercenery coche of american forein polices and europeans. Mr,MELES ZENAWI Despite of multy millioner meles taking from cia. But essayas Afwerki have nathing only onbhalf of healthy peaple of eritreans,So please dont make old stories come & see As u know our Gold our minds also gold.so as finally there is proverb (Dont Dgage a book with its caver).

  6. Excellent analysis, i do really appreciate the writer for the briliant thoughts. Yet, the conclusion looks like a mess as it is hard to speculate for a comfederation of Eritrea with Ethiopia knowing the fact that Eritrea had never been part of Ethiopia but of course as all nations were forcibly colonized it was forcibly colonized and unlike all nations is hard to think of Eritrea giving up its hard earned Independence

    • you got that wrong. eritrea is part and parcel of the whole ethiopia. thanks for the egptian and saudi petro dolar that lead eritrea get lost in the sahel deseret

  7. Copletely missed the boat. This is the kind of flawed thinking that is gripping the region and beyond the abity to move forward in this challenging times where freindship is much more important than posturing for confrontation. Just like Europe, Africans are diverse and need to be respected as such.The author not only wandered out of position to link a non-existent scenarios, but also suggests the need to bring stricter view toward leaders rather than what the leaders stand for. He equates Isayas with Meles, no one does that. Personally I do not know the leader of Eritrea, but I have a heck of a lot repect for him and what he stands than any other African leader other than Jacob Zuma.

  8. Meles Zenawi was just a servant to the US. The author’s suggestion that his wife Azeb can replace him is another good idea to get even a better servant to the US. It is not a secret that the US is running Ethiopia from behind the scene. If they succeed to make Azeb prime minister, they will have less effort to give her orders and achieve their goals of enslaving Ethiopian and the whole region of east Africa and beyond. The US is always looking for stupid leaders of African countries and Azeb Mesfin is a perfect first candidate. The Ethiopian people can only be free of slavery when they get leaders who can think independently and free from US lead western aid addiction. It is time they follow the footsteps of their Eritrean brothers and sisters and believe in self reliance. The only way to ensure development and progress for Ethiopians is to learn to live in peace with their neighbors particularly Eritrea. We can make two great nations if we follow basic mutual respect rules and if we work together. We must reject those who tricked us to bleed each other for decades.

  9. Greggory
    Your personal view seems that you are badly hunted and consumed by the cruel and dubious king Haileslase’s ghost instead of current or modern World . In your view you were trying to put Eritrea and Ethiopia in the same basket , where Ethiopia is a complete failed state and on the other hand Eritrea is registering an average of 8.9 gross growth yearly , again you tried to compare leadership of both sides where Zenawi is a complete puppet who is a disgraceful not only to his own Country but to all Africa , and on the contrarily, Afworki is an independent visionary leader who try to set a freedom and self reliant motto by example .

    • Awget,
      I hate your name to begin with because its a place where many of our sefless patriots were gunned down mysteriously by the blood thirsty butcher you dare to call visionary.Ofcourse one wouldn’t expect some truth from a delusional and dead brain supporter of evil who ignores the pain,misery and suffering of an entire nation.Its not surprising at all to tell us that a nation that barely feeds its population is registering an average of 8.9 economic growth and this is as usual a way of hiding and covering the big failure of their so called ”visionary”.The truth of the matter is, our poor people are dying silently due to starvation and hunger.If you dare to call a psycopath and blood sucker dictator who massacred disabled veterans (sinkulan tegadeltti,ab gedel eto da amber) for demanding a kitchen table issues in Mai Habar in 1994 a visionary,then you are really a living dead that don’t deserve a minute of my time.

  10. Eritreans and large majority of Ethiopians are not nostalgic about the feudal chief emperor Hailesilase. It is rather Gregory who is nostalgic about the emperor. Stop meddling in somebody’s business and writing nonsense scrap!

  11. The question is this article Fact or fiction or fancifull wishfull thinking! I wish the White man learns to grasp the African afairs, they tell us they are experts, knowledgeable about hte region; please plsea forgod sake white men go there and visit the countries you talking about before you spew so much toxic smoke.

  12. It this most absurd analysis I have seen in a while the author drags the name Eritrea and its president Issayas into his confused medley of myths and fallacies. The first myth, of course, is that Ethiopia was prospering under Haile Selassie. The second myth that closely follows this one is the myth that Eritrea was the biggest beneficiary of this prosperity under HS. These myths fly in the face of reality. One of the events that triggered the Ethiopian student uprising that lead to the military overthrowing HS was the Wollo famine. Although drought was at the heart of the disaster, the political leadership of HS lost in the lala land of “imperial glory” failed to detect and appreciate the magnitude of the hardship facing its people. Today some Ethiopians for reasons that I call the “Bob Marley” syndrome some how have developed unwarranted nostalgia for the “good old days of HIM rule”. This author seems to have been caught in that same false state.

    In his attempt to read into the illness/death of Meles, he again drags Eritrea into his mediocre conclusions. In complete contradiction of reality he declares Issayas either seriously incapacitated or dead. It is as if he has an Eritrea of his own making inside his own head.

  13. ”…..What has been significant, during this “interregnum”, however, has been the reality that Eritrea quietly occupied the contested border area which includes the city of Badme……” Badmen le mesthet mot lemn ashe ??? Is this the conclusion of the whole drama????

  14. The shift and the evolution of geopolitics will certainly modify the political realities of the Horn of Africa. One should not minimize the neocolonialism, capacity to shade its color as the situation demands. It will be and will remain to be in a position to outsmart and outfox the sluggish dynamism of the Horn.

  15. Lo’behold! Pure yellow journalism,arcane,fictitious and off the rail information,as an editor this article should’nt have made it past the editing room trash- can.Eritreans would be good neighbors to Ethiopia and you could bet your life never be part of any country ,let alone Ethiopia!!!

  16. what a rabish.Confederation Eritrea with Ethiopia ,You don,t know what you tolking about ,Rabish.

  17. The author has definitely grasped the declining geo- strategical importance of the area while at the same time disappearence of both Isayas and Meles and thereby a new power struggle in the area.This scenario seems quite possible and its traces are clearly manifested.
    Whereas, the author has also wishful thinking about The nostalgia of the Emperor Haileselasse and more absurdly about the confederation of Eritrea and Ethiopia.
    I would rather hint that Ethiopia’s fragmentation in different conflicts and folk-groups is rather oppen. whereas Eritreas ability to absorb this shaky realityseems a bit far away.
    Yet, the Tigray-tigrene would possibly flourish again and mark itself in the coming conflict of the area.
    However, generally speaking the author has a very good understanding of the approaching reality there excluding some of his own bias and wishful scenarios.
    thanks

  18. ‘confederation with ethiopia’ or a non state eritrea so that ethiopia can have a coastal gate……. these crazy westerners ideas are driving most eritreans to stand by the eritrean goverment, however dictator it is. The best thing to do is finish the boarder issue and then help both countries find a mutual solution for the use of assab.i have no doubt giving ethiopia fair,best and easy coastal way is an advantage to eritreans as well

  19. Aus 17
    Tigray -Tigrne idea is merely a myth , never practical, and even to make it deeper after our heroes grave is dug and violated by the slave woyann’s army , you are talking garbage , same as the paid low life writer .

  20. Wow…there were some interesting facts you brought up but missed the compelet point. Why should Eritrea confederate with Ethiopia? As Eritrean, i could careless who would be the next Ethiopian leader…but to the say the list and compare Isayas with Meles is just comlete wrong and dumpfound. Meles is the westerners pleaser…unlike Isayas who stand for his people and country no matter how chalenging westerners are to that.

  21. Now I can confidently say that majority of Eritreans are completely out of the track.
    Ethiopia currently is at peace with it self and the world except ,Eritrea (the land where the lord of lie and consciously truth is hijacked) time is behind the truth.You never see failed Ethiopia but prosperity.
    If you have eyes to see you can see that more than 2000 Eritrean walk on explosive to come to Ethiopia.I clearly know that you under-look the number because you and your mad boss consider the small Eritrea as demographically Billionaire,like china and India.Live in your fantasy world. cheers!

  22. I think mr.gregory is lost and his analysis makes no sense especially when it comes to the issues of ethioEritre. 1) eritrea had never been party of ethiopia. and confederation is out of question 2) iseyas is neither ill or dead 3) eritreans are civilized society hence they don’t use unlawful means to take badme as u had suggested. although meles is dead, and our neighbor ethiopians are in state confusion, eritreans don’t take the action u thought. Mr. u are a confused writer there is no power problem between the Eritrean leadership. so u need to back and make more reading!